Weather Center brings you the Severe Weather Forecast this week! There is now a chance for severe weather for DFW this week! If you didn’t see last Weather Center blog on the Severe Weather Outbreak, click HERE TO VIEW IT.
Severe Weather Chances:
Now, I mentioned yesterday that SPC may up the risk. Well… they did. DFW and other parts of North Texas are under an Enhanced risk and additionally there is a chance they could up it. It’s a low chance but its possible. Now, again, there is a new line of storms that will advance with a cold front and potentially cause a couple isolated but potentially STRONG tornadoes, large hail, and strong winds.
The Highest Risk is for Strong Winds and Hail. But, the continuing amount of research shows the tornado risk increasing and now has a 10% with a Sig value on it. What I ask is that all of you stay weather aware, and KNOW how to check if you are in danger because storms can come out of nowhere and if you don’t know when and where they could hit, then you are in danger.
Check out these places to stay informed and Weather Aware and download the AccuWeather or Weather Channel app to see the info they have in there!
(https://www.weathercentertx.com/weather-data/)
Severe Weather Data:
Discussion:
ACUS02 KWNS 211732 SWODY2 SPC AC 211731 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop east of the Interstate 35 corridor of southern Oklahoma into north central Texas by late Wednesday afternoon, before spreading southeastward across the Ark-La-Tex and Piney Woods Wednesday evening, into the lower Mississippi Valley by Thursday morning. This will be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, a few tornadoes, and potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... While mid-level ridging may begin to build across the eastern Pacific, downstream flow across the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic may trend more zonal during this period. This is expected to occur as a strong short wave trough within a distinct northern branch of mid-latitude westerlies pivots east-northeast of the New England coast. As an upstream perturbation rounds the crest of the eastern Pacific ridging, and digs into the Pacific Northwest, a fairly significant southern stream impulse is forecast to turn east of the southern Rockies, toward to the middle/lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. The southern stream perturbation appears likely to maintain a positive-tilt orientation, but models continue to suggest that it will be accompanied by a slowly deepening surface cyclone, from the southern Texas Panhandle vicinity early Wednesday morning into the Mid South by late Wednesday night. Initially cool/dry and stable boundary layer air, reinforced by a cold front associated with the lead northern branch impulse, likely will be entrenched as far south and west as northern Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into the lower Mississippi Valley at 12Z Wednesday. Some modification may already be underway across parts of the southeastern Plains, but a more established return flow is expected to be ongoing from across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the vicinity of the developing cyclone. And this moisture return may gradually broaden eastward within an evolving warm sector across the lower Mississippi Valley by late Wednesday night. The moisture return and associated destabilization, coincident with large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening deep-layer wind fields and vertical shear, probably will support increasing severe weather potential across the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains... Some uncertainties do linger, which could impact convective evolution and associated severe weather potential. This includes the potential for fairly strong capping associated with elevated mixed-layer air, which may initially suppress convective development, particularly along a sharpening dryline to the south of the surface cyclone. This may also impact areas east of the dryline, across much of eastern Texas, but considerable model output appears to suggest that large-scale forcing for ascent, likely aided by lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing convective development by midday across this region, before spreading toward the lower Mississippi Valley. This activity could be accompanied by some risk for severe hail, but probably would also reinforce stable boundary layer conditions. A consensus of model guidance does suggest that substantive boundary-layer destabilization through much of the day Wednesday may be initially confined to a fairly narrow corridor along the dryline, roughly along/east of the Interstate 35 corridor of central/southern Oklahoma into north central Texas by late afternoon. However, mixed-layer CAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear is expected to provide a conducive environment to discrete supercell development. Aided strengthening wind fields to 40-50+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer, contributing to sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs, the supercells may be accompanied by increasing risk for a few tornadoes, some strong, while spreading eastward into early evening. Thereafter, continued gradual low-level moisture advection and boundary layer destabilization ahead of the convective activity, coupled with mid-level cooling, may support the evolution of an upscale growing convective system with a transition to increasing potential for damaging wind gust, along with a continuing risk for tornadoes. This is expected to overspread the Ark-La-Tex region and Piney Woods of Texas through late Wednesday evening, before progressing eastward into the lower Missisippi Valley overnight. ..Kerr.. 04/21/2020 $$
Forecast data is produced manually by expert meteorologists at the NWS Storm Prediction Center. See their site for the most up-to-date official forecasts.
Tornado Risk: Medium
Wind Risk: High
Hail Risk: Extremely High
Know what to do if there is a tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning. Spend time tonight and practice in order to be prepared for tomorrow or any future times. Mother Nature can be unpredictable so we must be prepared for anything. The models just give us an idea.
Severe Weather Timing:
There is a wave of storms that could sink down from the north west in Oklahoma tonight and hit around 9:00-12:00 tonight into midnight. Stay weather aware for that. Small hail and winds possible in that storm.
Second, the main wave tomorrow will come around 8:00-12:00 PM from morning til noon. Stay Weather aware. Tornadoes, Large hail, and Strong Winds possible. Weather Center will keep you updated with the latest weather. Unfortunately, WC will probably not be able to go live tomorrow so they will update you through the website forum!
Stay Safe Y’all during this potential Severe Weather Outbreak!
so long,
Weather Center
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