Hey guys, welcome back to Weather Center! So WC has got more of the latest data and it wants to share it with you. The potential for Severe Weather on Tuesday has upped to a Enhanced Risk for North Texas and other places. So to keep it simple and short… there are 2 scenarios.
- Cap holds during the afternoon and then IF it breaks, it will bring potential severe storms for North Texas in the evening hours as they move West to East.
- OR cap holds until the cold front comes, then it probably will break and then storms could be severe, maybe even slightly stronger and the storms will happen late evening into night on Tuesday.
All these scenarios produce a chance of Large Hail and Strong Winds for North Texas.
SPC AC 270600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday across parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Scattered large to very large hail, numerous severe wind gusts (some significant), and a few tornadoes may occur. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley... A shortwave trough will dig southeastward from the northern Rockies/Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. As it does so, a surface low is forecast to develop eastward across the Upper Midwest to southern WI by Tuesday evening. Low-level moisture return will occur in earnest across the southern Plains into parts of the ArkLaTex, with mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints becoming common. A surface dryline will extend southward from a thermal low across the southern High Plains, and steep mid-level lapse rates will be present over much of the warm sector. With ample diurnal heating expected, moderate to very strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/kg) appears likely to develop by peak afternoon heating. Convection will quickly form and then explosively strengthen along a southeastward-moving cold front across southern KS/northern OK by late Tuesday afternoon, with initiation along the dryline more uncertain given at least some residual low-level capping. Although low-level flow is not forecast to be particularly strong, mid/upper-level northwesterly winds will strengthen through the late afternoon into the overnight as the shortwave trough shifts southeastward. Effective bulk shear is likewise forecast to increase sufficiently to support supercells with initial development along the cold front. Scattered large to very large hail will likely be the main threat so long as storms can remain semi-discrete. By early evening, upscale growth along the front will likely occur, with one or more bowing segments moving quickly southeastward across parts of central/eastern OK into north-central/northeast TX and the ArkLaTex region. Although convective inhibition will increase some through the evening, the well organized nature of the convection and large instability reservoir will likely support a swath of numerous to potentially widespread damaging winds, some of which could be significant. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. Eventually, the line should weaken with southward extent into the lower MS Valley and coastal TX as it outpaces the stronger shear/forcing associated with the shortwave trough. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest... Latest guidance has come into better agreement with the evolution of the surface low and potential for more robust instability to develop across parts of the mid MS Valley by Tuesday afternoon. Both low-level flow and shear should be somewhat stronger across this region compared to locations farther south. At least semi-discrete supercells appear probable from portions of southeastern IA into northern/central MO and IL. At least isolated large hail may occur, along with some damaging winds if storms can grow upscale into one or more small clusters. A few tornadoes also appear possible from late Tuesday afternoon through early evening along/south of the warm front given a favorable storm mode and sufficient low-level shear. By late Tuesday evening into the overnight hours, storms should weaken as they encounter a less unstable airmass over parts of the Mid-South and western KY/IN. ..Gleason.. 04/27/2020
To decode this SPC statement… just wait and see folks 🙂 don’t worry about it but do PLEASE as weather aware. We do have a chance of storms with Large Hail and Winds, NOT tornadoes most likely. Do prepare if needed.
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)
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