Monday Heat
Tomorrow could be a hot day for North Texas! Parts of DFW could see daytime highs into the mid-to-upper 70s, and south-central Texas has the best chance of seeing 80-degree weather. This is over +20 degrees above average for December!
Arctic Blast January 8-11th for North Texas
Now moving on to the potential Arctic blast. Before we dive in, let me add some complex context to what I’m about to show you. Part of weather forecasting, especially long-range forecasting, is comparing several different types of weather models. Below I will show you two of the most popular global weather models: the GFS and the ECMWF (commonly known as the EURO). The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GFS (Global Forecast System) are both global weather prediction models. The ECMWF is often preferred amongst meteorologists because of its higher resolution and dependency, whereas the GFS is widely used for its extensive forecast range and can be less accurate. However, the ECMWF can sometimes overestimate winter forecasts specifically, which is why I will be also showing you the GFS models.
More Info on the differences between ECMWF vs. GFS
Temperature Forecasts
Again, these are long-range weather models and they simply cannot be 100% accurate. The numbers you see here are just forecasted averages and the exact location and exact timing of this arctic blast are still unknown.
ECMWF Temperature January 8th @ 6AM
ECMWF Temperature January 9th @ 6AM
GFS Temperature January 8th @ 6AM
GFS Temperature January 11th @ 6AM
According to the ECMWF, the mornings of January 8th and 9th will be the coldest with low temperatures as low as the single digits in the metroplex. According to the GFS, the mornings of January 8th and 11th will both be cold, but only down to the low 20s or potentially upper teens for the metroplex.
Temperature Anomolies
Temperature Anomaly forecasts predict how much the actual temperature will deviate from the long-term average temperature for a specific time of year. In this case, the ECMWF model predicts approximately -20(°C) off from the average for the metroplex while the GFS predicts around -18(°C) off from the average. Very similar numbers. The bottom line is that these models are showing a consistent cold snap potential for the DFW metroplex, it just is still unsure exactly when and where it will happen.
ECMWF Temperature January 8th @ 6AM
GFS Temperature January 11th @ 6AM
Will it Snow?
There is a lot of misinformation going around on social media about a major snowstorm or a repeat of the 2021 Snowmageddon. Don’t believe it! As of now, there is not much evidence of any sort of winter storm for DFW during that time frame. However, I cannot rule out any snow for that timeframe, since a few models are indicating a hint of wintery precipitation potential, but nothing major at this time.
Power Outage Issue
The next big question you may ask may be, “will there be widespread power outages again?” The short answer is, “maybe”. The long answer is complicated due to many factors. The bottom line is that the operational forecasting supervisor of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said if severe cold snaps occur in Texas—similar to the February 2021 storm—there is an 80% likelihood of blackouts affecting more than 27 million customers across Texas. This would not be good news if Texas indeed does face record cold. Although, according to the latest ERCOT monthly report, the grid has added 10,000 MW of new generation capacity since last winter to help sustain power across Texas. ERCOT has also conducted 2,892 new inspections of the grid system since the 2021 storm. Stay tuned for more information
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